Duddoo

The 34-year-old was replaced in the Blue Jays’ lineup in the bottom of the seventh, with Davis Schneider entering to pinch hit.

Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.

UFC 303 is finally here after all the turbulence of the past month. What was once Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler is now a light-heavyweight championship rematch between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka and a short-notice co-main event with the always entertaining Bran Ortega and rising star Diego Lopes.

Pereira and Prochazka stepped on the scales Friday on championship weight, while Ortega vs. Lopes was changed from a 145-pound matchup to a 155-pound bout because Ortega, who had been planning a move up to lightweight anyways, was having trouble cutting weight.

In addition to those two fights, Ian Machado Garry looks to stay undefeated in MMA when he faces Michael Page in an anticipated welterweight tilt plus three Canadian fighters are among those competing on the preliminary card.

The fellas had a four-event parlay winning snapped last week as Aaron hit his dart throw for a second consecutive event.

Official UFC 303 bout and predictions below:

MAIN CARD

— Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka

— Bran Ortega vs. Diego Lopes

— Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze

— Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson

— Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page

PRELIMINARY CARD

— Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva

— Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

— Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili

— Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri

— Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson

— Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday

— Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez

— Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius Oliveira

Editor’s Note: Gambling problems aren’t only about losing money. They occur on a continuum, and can affect a person’s whole life. To learn more about developing a healthy relationship to gambling, and to find resources for support, click here.

CAGE LOCKS

Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”

Aaron: Pereira vs. Prochazka ends inside the distance -550 (FanDuel)

With the way that both Pereira and Prochazka fight and with the two fighters accepting on short notice, I expect that this fight does not go to the judges. Both fighters are so opportunistic that one of them should be able to find a finish.

Dan: Robertson vs Waterson-Gomez over 1.5 Rounds -275 (BetWay)

Both fighters will take a methodical approach to this one, likely avoiding significant damage until the business-end of the fight. Over 1.5 in this one is as safe a play as any on the card.

Mike: Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page begins Round 2 -600 (FanDuel)

When you think of how often I’ve been the one to mess up our parlay (Volkov vs. Pavlovich under 2.5 rounds last week was not in fact a lock), it’s entirely possible I’m manifesting a highlight first-round knockout for either fighter. So, on one hand, you’re welcome in advance. On the other, I think style wise this one could start slowly and even runs the risk of generating some boos from the less patient fans in attendance. 

Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -114 (to win $88.01)
2024 Record: 9-12 (current streak: L1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$315.84

OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE

Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? 

Aaron: Charles Jourdain -115 (DraftKings)

Jourdain and Silva are somewhat similar when it comes to their approach and where their strengths lie. I expect that this fight comes down to the power of Silva versus the speed, volume and accuracy of Jourdain. The Canadian has more ways to win this fight and I believe that more often than not he does.

Dan: Alex Pereira -142 (DraftKings)

I think we are on the verge of witnessing a dominant championship run with Alex Pereira. It was going well for Jiri Prochazka in their previous bout…until it wasn’t. Yes, MMA odds can make fools of us all, but I don’t see why things will play out any different this time around. Chama!

Mike: Gillian Robertson -175 (Bet365)

She looked great in Toronto at UFC 297 and is entering the prime of her career. Waterson-Gomez’s distance management and strength of schedule worry me slightly here but I see Robertson eventually using her slick grappling to get the fight into her world. My galaxy brain pick would be to place a live bet on the Canadian after the first round, which I can see her opponent winning by controlling the action on the feet.

Aaron’s favourite record: 12-9
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$128.38

Dan’s favourite record: 15-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$362.97

Mike’s favourite record: 13-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$64.05

Well, the cap finally shot up a bit and relieved some pressure, which it’s going to keep doing every year for many years. Because of COVID/escrow complications the upper limit doesn’t reflect league revenues. As it shoots up, teams are going to be able to keep their good players, trade for other good players, and not be forced into trimming off every bit of excess fat from their rosters.

This summer feels like it could be the first taste of that fun.

Related to that:

Haves and have-nots may be coming

The low cap and revenue sharing has meant that teams farther down the league in terms of revenue and spending have been able to spend almost as much as everyone else, and stay competitive. Money almost hasn’t been a factor around the league. It’s been 32 teams and everyone has a chance. How quaint.

But as the salary cap goes up, I don’t think every owner is going to want to spend to it (even though I don’t think you should own a team without being willing to spend to the cap). If the cap is $100-plus million in a few years, will some teams who spend to the top finally see an advantage over some smaller market teams, particularly those a good distance from contending? I think it’ll happen.

My UFA theory

Shopping at July 1 is a little like bringing your kid to the store with their birthday money. Maybe they’ve got $20 to spend in the toy store. They can either get A) A single item worth $20, or B) a bunch of cheap little trinkets worth $20. (They will spend the full $20, of course.)

You want to push them towards a single good thing that will last, as much as they’ll chase quantity.

When teams have cap space, they’re far better off to target one guy they really want, pay the man, and then wait for better value to come up on subsequent days. When the Leafs went out and got TJ Brodie for four years at $5 million per season, it was a great purchase. He struggled the second half of the final year of that deal (which you accept when you buy an older UFA for four years), but he was a value for them for the rest of the deal. But when you go outbid other teams for depth players like, say, Ryan Reaves, you’re unlikely to get value.

It’s OK to overpay a bit for a player you badly need. But over-spending by $0.5 million on three or four “meh” contributors ends up hurting.

Jon Cooper and Team Canada

It’s a unique job, preparing to coach a group of players who’ve never played together, for just a few games. But if any coach in the league can handle it, it’s Cooper.

At the Four Nations Faceoff, Team Canada will be loaded up front, but get progressively weaker as they move back towards their own net, which can give you two options: Commit to strong positional play and team defence, and wait for your skill to break through in close games, or go for broke on offence and try to outscore everyone.

My thought is that in a tournament like this, nobody is going to be perfect defensively, they just don’t have the time to gel and know where each other are going to be. It won’t be like a playoff series.

And so, Canada may be at its best leaning into its strengths, and just go, go, go, knowing there will be mistakes from the other team. They say you can’t win 7-6 all the way through playoffs, but you might be able to in a short tournament.

When Barnes was a rookie, Mogbo made his first visit to Toronto, and a running gag became how often he would be mistaken for former Raptor Precious Achiuwa.

“I got love since day one when I first came to visit Scott in his rookie year.
said Mogbo, who wasn’t six feet tall until he finished high school and spent four years at three different schools as he slowly grew to six-foot-eight and became an NBA prospect after his breakout season at the University of San Francisco last year. “Funny story, we went to ride scooters around town and went to the pharmacy to get some and so we’re walking through the aisle, and someone was like this ‘is that Precious and Scottie?

“I was like, ‘What is it, is my hair? I hear Precious always wears his in a ponytail, and I always wear mine in a ponytail. So it was a funny interaction … And then [he finally] met Precious at dinner one time and he was like, ‘he does kind of look like me.’ But it’s been great since I’ve been here. Great fans, great city, so can’t complain.” 

So very fun. If Walter and Mogbo — or even one of them — become significant contributors in the near future after being taken 19th and 31st respectively, it will be considered a good day of team building.

But nice moments don’t pay the bills in the NBA, winning does.

Which is why the most meaningful Raptors news Friday — at least until they decide what to do with the $23-million option on Bruce Brown’s contract, which has to be picked up by midnight to prevent him from becoming a free agent — was that Toronto reached an agreement on a five-year deal for $175 million with Quickley.

How well Walker and Mogbo and anyone else the Raptors have acquired in the past 48 hours (Davion Mitchell and Sasha Vezenkov from Sacramento, for example) perform will not matter as much as how well Quickley plays as a starting point guard earning an average of $35 million a year.

It’s a rich deal, and justifies Quickley’s decision not to sign an extension with the New York Knicks last summer. Most of the rumblings last year were that Quickley was looking for a deal comparable to what Devin Vassell got from the San Antonio Spurs last summer (five years and $135 million, beginning this season). The Knicks couldn’t justify spending that much on what was then their backup point guard and set in motion the wheels that landed Quickley — and RJ Barrett — in Toronto in the deal that sent OG Anunoby and Achiuwa to the Knicks.

But just as Anunoby had all the leverage with the Knicks — who couldn’t afford to not sign him after using plum trade assets to acquire him — and was able to get top dollar (five years, $212.5 million) as a result, the Raptors had no choice but to sign Quickley to a deal that would make him happy and eliminate any risk of a cap-space team making a run at him as a restricted free agent after trading Anunoby to get him.